[[The Consilience Project]]. “Development in Progress,” July 16, 2024. [https://consilienceproject.org/development-in-progress/](https://consilienceproject.org/development-in-progress/). ## My Litnotes - "[[The Progress Narrative]]" is the idea that innovation, markets and science is in general improving human life and flourishing. - The article poses strong challenges for this narrative by highlighting the risks inherited in narrow-minded technological innovation in combination with market-driven forces. - According to the article, [[Developing a more mature idea of progress is vital to ensure a viable, long-term future for humanity]], - Progress can have negative consequences - Progress is not only a force for good - ... the above is true at least as long as our idea and conceptualisation of progress is limited and narrowly defined - [[When we try to solve problems, we often create new ones]]. - For example, the nuclear bomb was created to solve the world war. - The problem of "engine knocking" was solved by a chemist working at GM by introducing Lead to gasoline, which in the decades to follow caused immense harm to human beings and ecosystems. - [[Humans often underestimate the negative side effects of new technologies]] - [[Whatever is not included in our definition and measurement of progress is often harmed in its pursuit]] - [[There were no synthetic chemicals in the biosphere that produced intelligent life]] # Development in Progress  ## Metadata - Author: [[leah]] - Full Title: Development in Progress - Category: #articles - Summary: The idea of progress is essential to humanity's story, but our current understanding is incomplete and often overlooks harmful side effects. As we advance in technology and knowledge, we must redefine progress to include the broader impacts on all life on Earth. A more mature approach to progress will help ensure a sustainable and equitable future for everyone. - URL: https://consilienceproject.org/development-in-progress/ ## Highlights - Our typical approach to technological innovation today harms much that is not only beautiful and inspiring, but also fundamentally necessary for the health and well-being of all life on Earth. Developing a more mature approach to our idea of progress holds the key to a viable, long-term future for humanity. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vsyzjm3q2z02cc6dm47srj)) - Whatever is not included in our definition and measurement of progress is often harmed in its pursuit. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vsy1g2e88j3ztzpdbj834n)) - we use the phrase “the progress narrative” to refer to the way we think and talk about progress in society. The progress narrative is the pervasive idea within our culture that technological innovation, markets, and our institutions of scientific research and education enable and promote a general improvement in human life. This article questions the accuracy, incentives, and risks of this narrative, examining the reasons that the idea has held such a central role in shaping the development of our global civilization. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vt2ya807m32v9cpgpzf4j8)) - In 1921, the problem of “engine knocking” was solved by Thomas Midgley Jr., a chemist working at General Motors. Knocking is a characteristically noisy problem known to limit engine performance and damage internal components, and Midgley proposed the addition of Tetraethyl Lead (TEL) to gasoline as an anti-knock agent. Although TEL solved the problem, thereby increasing performance and fuel efficiency, its release into the atmosphere also caused incalculable damage.[1] Lead is a potent neurotoxin that is harmful to all life, but particularly to children, causing cognitive problems and delays in development.[2] In 1979 alone, American cars released more than 200 million pounds of aerosolized lead into the atmosphere.[3] In 2015, it was assessed that due to this single innovation, environmental lead exposure cost humanity nearly one billion points in IQ and significantly increased the base rate of violent behavior.[4] More recent studies suggest that the scale of lead poisoning far exceeds previous estimates; in 2019 alone, it is projected that 5.5 million people died of heart disease caused by lead poisoning, making it the leading cause of cardiovascular death worldwide, ahead of smoking and nutrition.[5] The impact of lead on global IQ has also been significantly underestimated, with updated figures suggesting a loss of 785 million IQ points, in children under five alone, in the same single year.[6] ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vtc1hmyd0x7nm6ny2b4nz0)) - The Global Burden of Disease study estimated that pollution-related disease was responsible for 9 million premature deaths in a single year.[12] This conservative estimate represents 16 percent of total global mortality, and still fails to capture the kinds of damage that are not immediately fatal but nonetheless significant and debilitating. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vtg9h2yjbg4y0tpgs5k9cr)) - We Underestimate the Side Effects of New Technologies ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vtmbeh518ywv2ynf4pdc0n)) - Beyond [leaded gasoline](https://timesflowstemmed.com/2015/04/26/7505/), there are a long list of other inventions that have caused incalculable suffering and killed many millions of innocent people.[15] Vioxx was a widely used painkiller, which also increased risk of heart disease, with estimates of unnecessary deaths in the tens of thousands.[16] [Asbestos](https://www.pinterest.com/pin/pinterest--303922674828461899/) is a useful flame-retardant construction material, which to this day causes many types of cancer and approximately two hundred fifty-five thousand excess deaths globally each year.[17] [DDT](https://thesocietypages.org/socimages/files/2008/02/DDTwallpaper.jpg) is a pesticide that was advertised as a miracle chemical and sprayed directly onto people and food; despite restrictions in its use, DDT still causes damage to the environment and to many aspects of human health, including as a cause of cancer, fertility problems, and impairments in infant development.[18] The most famous case may be [thalidomide](https://rationalcatholicblog.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/distaval.gif), that was prescribed in the 1960s during pregnancy to relieve morning sickness; it caused thousands of babies either to die in the womb or in infancy, and left many others with severe deformities of limbs, ears, the heart, and other internal organs.[19] ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vtkwvawkj1qsfcpc3hsm0t)) - In all of the cases noted above, for at least a brief time, we thought that each product was a positive and desirable innovation.[22] Among both experts and members of the broader public, each one was seen as a beneficial tool for the management of a problem we wanted to solve—as a form of *progress.* As it turned out, our conception of progress in these cases was naive. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vtph71rw8p811r497ra0hf)) - Humanity was *deficient in broader awareness and understanding* of other highly consequential effects of their use. This article suggests that the same phenomenon—naivety of the totality of a technology’s effects—is true *more often than not* for the technologies that we create. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vtr41z88xc7k36bgxhynb9)) - The world is also beginning to wake up to the impacts of Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) on human health and the environment. PFAS are used in waterproof fabrics, nonstick pans and some firefighting foams, and are often referred to as “forever chemicals” because they resist environmental degradation and simply accumulate over time. PFAS are linked to many forms of biological damage, including disruption to the cardiovascular, endocrine, and reproductive systems, as well as impaired liver function and an increased risk of cancer. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vttzj6q3257eemmvhe9fgd)) - A study has suggested a cost of about seven thousand times the annual global GDP to remove and destroy just one small subclass of PFAS chemicals from the environment.[26] PFAS are now found everywhere, including in rainfall in the most pristine parts of the planet.[27] No matter how much money you have, and no matter where you build your doomsday bunker, you can no longer avoid the diseases of the anthropocene. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vtw5dd0jwy6yvj0bvpk6md)) - While the intention to control toxic substances in the environment is obviously worthy of support, it’s also important to note that in our evolutionary environment, the amount of these substances was zero. There were no synthetic chemicals in the biosphere that produced intelligent life. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vtxxtej75maqc9z8h9wjbj)) - In our globalized world, everyone suffers from these impacts, and so there is often little opportunity to notice problems between populations with more or less acute exposure. We are all exposed together. Legislation fails to be a meaningful lever under such circumstances. These impacts are driving us toward a civilizational *death by a thousand cuts*.[29] ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vv1ytmrzr3y3cwv2r69mez)) - Many hoped that social media would connect people and build digital communities; in the West at least, we took no action to account for how it would also drive political polarization, damage mental health, and present a useful vector for disinformation and psychological warfare. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vv46jv70fkmnch3wzmjdh9)) - The vast majority of the most consequential and difficult problems we face—climate change, nuclear war, species extinction—are the unintended outcomes of humans attempting to solve other problems. In our efforts to solve the problem of World War II, for example, we invented nuclear weapons, which played a role in ending the war, and yet at the same time delivered humanity into a far more precarious and insecure world. For many of our greatest problems, at some point in the past we designed technical solutions to address them, and in the time since the solutions have had other effects that we either did not predict or did not mitigate sufficiently in advance. The problems the world faces today are not caused by our inability to achieve our goals—they are a direct result of our success. They are a result of how destructive we are in the pursuit of our goals. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vv88vm11qqvggmmeyqcbph)) - Applying this framework of maturity, it can be said that our current definition of progress is immature. It fails to view the world from a broader set of perspectives. It harms much that we both value and need. A mature perspective on progress must factor how the changes we make will impact the wider world beyond our immediate intentions, over time. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vvd3rjbsfxxztjvxj0bn5j)) - Progress worth believing in—progress that is really about increasing *betterment*, increasing the *goodness in the world*—must still be able to be considered “good” once it has taken account of all perspectives and externalities. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3vve4grwsamnt4jr3s3g7np)) ## New highlights added July 28, 2024 at 7:36 AM - We can call this *fake* progress, *immature* progress, or *naive* progress; all of these are relevant ways to frame the same core idea. The point is that how we define progress determines the future we build, and if we continue to define it in any way that does not take account of its full set of effects in the world, we will build a future that systematically harms life and undermines the things we both value and need. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01j3w0s9daqpajnemm7xb2s6rf))